NFL Week 15 picks against the spread: Time to reconsider Josh Allen and the Bills?

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We’re not going to waste too much time with the intro here. We were 10-4-1 last week and you want to hurry up and get to the churning of the butter and put some more tasty picks in the oven. I get it.

But when you look at the AFC, is it time to reconsider the Bills? They are one of six teams with a 7-6 record and it could be a lot better, which is amazing considering all the drama they’ve been through this season. Their six losses have come by a combined margin of 26 points, plus they seem to be hitting their stride, coming off an overtime loss at Philadelphia and then a win at Kansas City last week. Probably the toughest venues in the league.

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(Psst … come closer … the Bills also got a lot of calls last week and maybe the script from league headquarters has them making the playoffs.)

In a wide-open AFC, 18-1 to win the Super Bowl is, at the very least, interesting.

On to the butter …

Last week: 10-4-1 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets.

Season record: 115-100-4 ATS, 40-30 on best bets.

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All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Quick, where did Easton Stick go to college? North Dakota State. Just wanted the national TV audience to know something about the new Chargers QB — who must have had some softball enthusiasts for parents — entering Thursday’s game. He’s probably not very good, but how many QBs this year are? I do think Austin Ekeler showed his first signs of life last week, so I will take the second-best offensive player on the field and the points. The Raiders can’t get the ball to the best one, Davante Adams, and are averaging 12 points a game the last month after being shut out Sunday. Jimmy Garoppolo led the league in interceptions before he was benched and the offense misses him. And they’re 3-point favorites?

The pick: Chargers 

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The Vikings are coming off a shutout of the Raiders and now Brian Flores gets to try and solve the hottest QB in the league. Yes, Jake Browning. Browning is the second player since 1950 with a completion percentage of 70 or higher and a passer rating of 95 or higher in each of his first three starts. (You’ll be less impressed when I say the other guy was Chad Pennington.) The Vikings will blitz from everywhere, but Browning is 13-of-21 (61.9 percent) for 201 yards (9.6 YPA) with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the blitz since replacing Joe Burrow. He trails only Brock Purdy in EPA per dropback (0.67) against the blitz since Week 11. Meanwhile, Nick Mullens takes over for Joshua Dobbs, and the Vikings would need to run the ball to hang in here, and I have no faith in Alexander Mattison.

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The pick: Bengals 

The Steelers have lost and not covered the spread three of the last four games, and I have been against them every time. But they are in a desperate spot here, and the Colts may be a tad overrated. Steelers defensive star T.J. Watt was cleared from the concussion protocol Wednesday night and I wish I knew that Alex Highsmith would be also, but he is at least trending in the right direction as well. The Colts secondary is banged up so I had trusted sidekick Jason Starrett stay up all night looking for a positive Mitch Trubisky stat to nudge me on board. Voila. On throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap, Trubisky has the league’s fourth-best passer rating over the past two weeks (106.3) with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Colts opponents have averaged 2.53 seconds from snap to throw this season, the seventh fastest in the NFL.

The pick: Steelers 

Who knew, the Lions are a little soft? They turtled up in Chicago last week, but now they are back home in the cozy indoors and coach Dan Campbell said he was going to be “more irritable” towards his players this week. The Broncos are hot but are playing their third straight road game on a short week and are actually a good matchup for the Lions. Campbell should be able to run the ball against his old mentor, Sean Payton, as the Broncos have allowed 40.6 percent of opponent rushes to gain 5 or more yards during their 6-1 stretch since Week 7 (29th in NFL). The Lions rank second in the NFL with 5.3 yards per rush over the same span. They should be able to get back on a roll considering their last four games are all indoors.

The pick: Lions 

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If there ever was a week to back the Panthers it was last week against the Saints with Taysom Hill out. But Carolina was powerless because their quarterback is drawing comparisons to Jimmy Clausen. Bryce Young ranks last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.3), including a season-low 3.8 in last week’s loss to the Saints. The 5.3 yards per attempt for the season would be the worst by any qualified QB across the NFL since Clausen’s 5.2 for Carolina in 2010. Young will only have one side of the field to play with as the Falcons have a lockdown cornerback in AJ Terrell. On 29 coverage snaps last week, Terrell was targeted just three times, allowed one reception for 5 yards and had one pass defensed. I don’t have a lot of faith in Arthur Smith, but it doesn’t matter.

The pick: Falcons 

The Bears have won three out of four and people are people are buying Justin Fields (223 yards passing, 58 rushing and two touchdowns against the Lions) and a Montez Sweat-led defense. In the six weeks since trading for Sweat, the Bears defense ranks fourth in total yards and passing yards allowed, sixth in rushing yards allowed and first in passer rating against. But pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue broke his ankle last week, and the Browns will be able to pay Sweat a lot more attention and give elite Joe Flacco enough time. In two games with Cleveland, Flacco has already thrown as many touchdown passes of 20-plus yards (four) as all other Browns QBs have thrown in the past two seasons combined. Though the Browns defense has had some slippage of late and just lost Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, I think they can contain Fields and avoid the upset at home.

The pick: Browns 

I don’t know how the Buccaneers did it last week. Mike Evans was held to 8 yards and the Falcons outgained them by 144 yards, but plucky Baker Mayfield led them on a game-winning drive and they’re in a first-place tie with the Falcons. They will surely connect this week, but I think the Packers are going to get out to a big enough lead where it won’t matter. Jordan Love took a step back last week (a season-low 5.9 air yards per attempt), but he still led a potential game-winning drive. And the Buccaneers’ pass defense is not good. Matt LaFleur is now 16-1 in December for his career after losing to the Giants last week, but the Packers coach starts a new streak on Sunday — especially if cornerback Jaire Alexander is back from a shoulder injury.

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The pick: Packers 

This point spread is plummeting downward as Tyreek Hill is banged up and center Connor Williams is out for the year with a torn ACL. Everyone could see the slippage Monday night. The Dolphins have been the NFL’s most effective team in the red zone, scoring TDs on a league-best 71.1 percent of their drives. But Miami went 2-for-5 in the red zone against Tennessee, including 1-of-4 on goal-to-go drives. The Dolphins had as many red zone turnovers and field goals against Tennessee (three) as they had in the previous 10 games combined. The Jets were embarrassed by the Dolphins on Black Friday, and while I don’t know if Zach Wilson can exact revenge, he can at least get the cover.

The pick: Jets

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I keep looking at my watch. This whole “Tommy Cutlets” 15 seconds is still going on, huh? I love Italian food, hand gestures and mob movie references as much as the next guy, but tough guys who rely on their scrambling rather than passing mechanics usually don’t last long. And the Saints have a pretty good pass defense. Offensively, Derek Carr is playing with banged-up ribs, and he wasn’t playing well with healthy ones. But Hill is back, and he will join Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams and help take advantage of a bad Giants run defense. The spread seemed high and it’s going up, which means the wise guys are going against Tommy DeVito on a short week. Count me in.

The pick: Saints 

C.J. Stroud did not practice Wednesday due to a concussion, so there is a good chance that Davis Mills will start for the Texans. Houston also has a lot of injuries at receiver, which is too bad as I was looking to go against Tennessee after an improbable 14-point comeback win over the Dolphins on Monday night. Will Levis is still too hot and cold. But in what will be another low-scoring game, I see Derrick Henry putting his team on his back — despite the Texans actually being improved against the run this year — after his fumble last week. If not for a missed PAT, the Titans would be riding a three-game win streak.

The pick: Titans 

Poor Patrick Mahomes. First, his receivers can’t catch. Now, they can’t even line up correctly. Kadarius Toney’s costly offsides penalty last week was also indicative of bigger issues. It was Kansas City’s 52nd offensive penalty of the season, the most of any team. The 52 offensive penalties are already 17 more than the Chiefs had all of last season. The Chiefs have been slightly off all season and now face a Patriots team looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. New England has been solid on defense for the last month and is especially good at covering tight ends. The Patriots rank ninth in the NFL in opponent yards per attempt this season (6.7). Mahomes has had six games in which he averaged 6.7 yards per attempt or fewer and the Chiefs are 1-5 in those games. Offensively, the Patriots should be able to run the ball against the Chiefs. Take the points.

The pick: Patriots 

Last week, someone suggested I be drug tested for picking Drew Lock to cover against the 49ers. Well, we were both right. The Seahawks were a loser on here because they were only 10.5-point dogs Thursday, but the 12-point loss was good for a cover by the time the spread closed at 13.5 Sunday. No drug test for me this week. Even though Kyler Murray has won two of his last three starts against the 49ers. And the 49ers might be sleepwalking a bit because they became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, while the Cardinals are coming off a bye. The problem is the Cardinals defense is so bad that the 49ers can score in their sleep. And their backups can also score in their sleep.

The pick: 49ers

The Commanders can’t cover you and me, so how are they going to stop Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who is getting healthier and starting to look like his old self? Kupp caught 8 of 10 targets for 115 yards and a TD last week, averaging 8.5 air yards/target and 8.1 yards after the catch. I don’t think even a bye week can help the Commanders get ready for Matthew Stafford picking them apart. But it can help them prepare to try and match the Rams score for score. The Commanders have allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL (58), but Washington’s pass-happy offense racks up a ton of yards when it can keep QB Sam Howell upright (eighth in the NFL in yards per play on non-sack snaps). The Rams rank 26th in sack rate (5.9 percent) and 21st in explosive play rate allowed (10.9 percent). Take the points.

The pick: Commanders 

Josh Allen is starting to run more again, which will come in handy in bad weather. He has nine games with both a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown this season, tied with Kyler Murray (2020) for the most in a season in NFL history. The Cowboys have been on quite a roll — they lead the NFL in both first downs per game (23.4) and third-down efficiency (49.2 percent) — but it’ll be hard to avoid a letdown after a huge revenge win over the hated Eagles. And it’s going to be cold and nasty in Buffalo. The Bills are 12-1 in the regular season at home the last two seasons, and they’re 10-2 overall — including six wins in a row — in Week 15 and later since 2020.

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The pick: Bills 

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It’s hard to get fired up for a trip to Jacksonville. Unless you really like restaurants with taxidermy on the walls that serve alligator and frog body parts for dinner. Imagine if you are a football team coming off a thrilling overtime win last week and has a “Monday Night Football” game next week against the 49ers. Yeah, the Ravens will be able to score against the Jaguars, but will they be locked in enough to stop Trevor Lawrence and his bionic ankle? The Ravens will have trouble with the Jaguars receivers, especially containing tight end Evan Engram. He had 11 catches on 12 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns last week — despite averaging only 6.4 targeted air yards on the day, ninth highest among tight ends.

The pick: Jaguars

The Seahawks have given up 30 points per game the last six weeks and are just what the doctor ordered for the reeling Eagles. The Eagles lost the two games of a grueling stretch (Dallas, at Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, at Dallas) but are still 10-3 and get an extra day to prepare for an easy final four games (at Seattle, Giants, Arizona, at Giants). The Seahawks can’t cover top receivers like the Eagles have and can’t slow down mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts. The Seahawks are 20-7 against the spread as an underdog at home since 2009, but Geno Smith has been too inconsistent this season for me to go against an angry, rested Eagles team with big mismatches on offense.

The pick: Eagles 

Best bets: Last week, we howled with the underdogs. This week, we’re laying the wood with the Bengals over Vikings, Lions over Broncos, Packers over Buccaneers, Bills over Cowboys and Eagles over Seahawks.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): After the Jets came through for us last week, Lawrence makes a triumphant return home for the Jaguars after limping off two weeks ago and scaring the heck out of fans and beats the Ravens.

— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett. 

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(Top photo of Josh Allen: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

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